Minnesota Vikings have a major J.J. McCarthy issue, and how Kevin O'Connell handles it could make or break the franchise's future

No matter how you look at it, McCarthy's been awful. We know his mechanics have been all over the place, and they were wonky in the above clip. The inconsistencies have been the only real constant for McCarthy, and it's not just on the field; it's also the stat sheets. If you want to look at EPA/play, specifically in drop backs, he's not just bad, he's nearly the worst in the last 25 years.

That's a brutal statistic to look at. McCarthy's performance against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday was the third-worst in the league in that category after taking out quick pressures.

Perhaps a chart comparing him to his contemporaries in terms of efficiency, which is particularly important when discussing the baseline of quarterback play, will help emphasize our current position. Well, he's the worst in the league.

It's hard to find a silver lining in McCarthy's game right now. Even so, O'Connell expressed confidence in his ability to win with how he's playing, and much of that likely stems from what he sees in practice every week.

“I think you can. I do believe that,” said O’Connell about winning with this version of McCarthy. “But it does require, as a football team, not doing things that lose games. A special teams turnover, I believe, in two out of our last three games, and then ultimately, the defense is out there battling. They’re trying to get the ball back for us as much as we can. But then there are some things where you can’t have breakdowns around that player to consistently sustain.”

There is something to what O'Connell is saying about having his teammates playing well, and it takes everyone to win a football game. The game felt lost after the botched punt early in the third quarter. You can't give away points, but the offense wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire either.

The other element is how often his receivers are dropping the ball. Going into Week 11, Pro Football Focus charted McCarthy's attempts with a 14.7% drop rate, the highest in the NFL. You can look at this one of two ways: his teammates aren't helping him out, or he's not throwing a very catchable football. It's likely the latter, as Carson Wentz had just a 3.5% drop rate on 166 attempts, which was 26 more than McCarthy had in his five games.

It's also fascinating when you look at things from a surroundings perspective. You can make the argument that no first-year starting quarterback has had better surroundings than McCarthy.

With how McCarthy is playing, you have to start considering alternatives in multiple forms. O'Connell took a serious chance with the offensive approach in this game, focusing on the running game more than he had all season, including a 58% run rate in the first half, and it paid off with 4.7 yards per carry. Even so, McCarthy had his worst game, and there's a non-zero chance that O'Connell could lose the locker room.

“It’s frustrating to be up here and say the same things every single week. You say the same things, expecting for something to change, and we’re still in the same spot," said star wide receiver Justin Jefferson.

At a certain point, it doesn't matter how much you run a play in practice if you can't execute it on Sunday.

“I think it’s more a matter of understanding how important each and every single play is,” said right tackle Brian O'Neill in the locker room. “We can run it 100 times [in practice]. But this week, how does that apply? And then, [it ’s] understanding what might be asked of you on that play, and how it applies to the defense we’re going to get. What is my exact job on that play, and how do I have the best chance for success on that play?”

Right now, the biggest reason for the lack of success on a given play has been McCarthy. Do the Vikings look at the unthinkable and bench him just six games into the season? Considering the backup is UDFA rookie Max Brosmer, who the Vikings are high on, it would send a potentially dangerous message. Even so, not making a change could possibly lose the locker room, and they already felt checked out in the second half of Sunday's game.

One thing to remember about the entire situation are O'Connell's comments from September of 2024 when he appeared on The Rich Eisen Show after McCarthy's meniscus injury.

"I believe that organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations. And that’s not there’s no specific example in my mind that I could give you of a team or a quarterback just overall 30,000 foot view," said O'Connell.

"It’s important to understand that every one of these guys is on a journey — a very difficult journey — and that they need support and teammates around them. They need the systems in place to ultimately maximize who they are and what their potential is, because you’re still drafting players rich off of potential. And then everything that happens from that moment to when that potential becomes is really on the organization."

Here's where things get confusing. The systems and support are in place for McCarthy, but it's not working. How much longer can O'Connell keep going with McCarthy, considering how good and stable things are in the organization? With such stability, would moving on from McCarthy be failing him, or would it be a Josh Rosen-type admission that he isn't the guy they thought he could be?

If O'Connell chooses to move on, would he be allowed to choose another quarterback? It's something that plenty of coaches don't get a chance to do, but this is a unique situation. O'Connell brought out the best in Kirk Cousins, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and revitalized Sam Darnold. If there was ever a coach to survive a situation like this, it would be O'Connell. Anything he chooses to do needs to work, not just for the team and the fanbase, but also for his job security.

The future of the Minnesota Vikings is far from certain across the board. Whatever O'Connell ends up doing, which I believe will be starting McCarthy for the rest of the season, will be widely discussed and criticized across the league. Clarity will come sooner rather than later, and we will learn a lot about this organization in the process.