You’ll definitely guess why the Capitals are in a four-game losing streak

Having lost their fourth game in a row, the Washington Capitals have a lot to ponder before their next game, Wednesday against St. Louis. There’s nothing I hate more than wasted time, 

he said as he prepares to attempt his 100th run in Hades II, so I’ve created this guide to what’s working and what’s the power play with Capitals.

Oh, that’s a spoiler.

The Washington Capitals control play well during five-on-five.

Our best tool for measuring puck possession is shot attempts. The Caps are the team behind 55.4 percent of attempts in their games, third best in the league behind Colorado and Carolina.

Early-season possession is a good indicator of success later in the season. We should feel good about the Caps’ ability to drive play, but there’s a big caveat.

The Capitals have had weak opponents so far.

In their games against all other teams, the Caps’ opponents have averaged 48.3 percent of both shot attempts and expected goals. The Bruins, Kraken, and Canucks are all below 45 percent. And I don’t know what the heck is going on with Dallas – a 6-3-3 record but ranked last in shot attempts and bottom ten in expected goals.

Washington’s schedule in October was cushy; leading models predict those teams will finish with an average of 89 points. But in November, it climbs to 94. I think of 92 points as a crude cutoff between playoff and non-playoff teams, if that helps put it in context.

The Caps aren’t finishing their chances.

According to my favorite site, Natural Stat Trick, the Caps have had 129 high-danger chances during five-on-five play through 12 games. That’s a high number – fifth most in the league. You can see that reinforced by this heatmap from my other favorite site, HockeyViz.

The opponent’s goal is at the top. The deep red blob indicates that the Caps are getting lots of chances from that location – all up in the goalie’s face. One problem:

Their shots aren’t going in.

Though the Caps rank fifth in generating high-danger chances, they rank 18th in high-danger goals. Their shooting percentage on those chances is 27th in the league. The puck luck just isn’t there.

We saw that on Saturday night when Aliaksei Protas rang the crossbar, the 19th near-miss for the Caps so far this season, among the most in the league.

And we’re not used to poor puck luck.

During all of five-on-five play, not just high-danger chances, the Caps convert 8.2 percent of their shots on goal, 25th in the league. Shooting cold over one-seventh of the season isn’t abnormal, nor is it something to worry about if your team is generating chances as well as Washington is, but. . .

We are spoiled. At this point last season, the Capitals were shooting 14.1 percent, first in the league. Until a late-season slump, that team was on track to being the hottest-shooting team of the modern era. (They still finished 9th out of 584 teams.)

From an objective standpoint, the Caps are struggling to score. From a subjective standpoint, i.e. all of ours, the Caps are in a crisis, oh god, oh god, someone do something.

It’s too early to worry about Alex Ovechkin.

With just two goals in twelve games, Alex Ovechkin is concerning. Basic observation suggests his mobility is poor. The NHL’s player-tracking system, 

EDGE, has a lot of problems, but it aligns with the eye test: Ovechkin’s maximum skating speed is down almost two miles per hour from last year.

But Ovechkin has a decades-long history of making haters his waiters at the table of success. Keep in mind that Ovechkin had this exact goal total after this exact number of games in 2023-24. He finished that campaign with 31 goals. He had three goals at this point of his 2008-09 season. He went on to score infinity goals and win the Richard, Hart, and Pearson.

I’m not saying Ovi will score 56 goals this season. His shot-attempt rate during five-on-five is 19, down from 22 last season, but it’s still on pace with few years before, when he wasn’t closely stalking Gretzky.

It’s possible that Ovechkin has gone off a cliff. I doubt it. I wouldn’t worry.

I wouldn’t worry about much of anything at five-on-five, as long as the core stays healthy.

But.

BUT!

The Washington Capitals’ power play is atrocious.

The Caps’ last power-play goal came nine days ago. They’ve failed to score on 13 opportunities during this four-game losing streak. Since two of those games were decided by one goal and the Islanders game would have been too if not for an empty-netter, the PP is the primary reason why this losing streak exists at all.

Over the whole season, having converted six of their 40 power-play opportunities, the Caps’ 20th ranked power play looks better than it actually is. A lot of the teams below the Caps – like the Canes, Rangers, and Leafs – are struggling because of low shooting percentages. Washington is struggling because they can’t even shoot in the first place.

The power play isn’t generating enough offense.

The Capitals attempt 85.4 shots per hour during five-on-four play, worse than every team except Chicago. For context, an average power play attempts about 100 shots per hour, and a good one gets around 115. The Caps were at 98 last season.

Revisiting HockeyViz’s heatmap, but this time for power-play offense, the Caps are a black hole. Technically, literally, they’re a purple hole, indicating way less offense coming from all over the ice.

But “not enough shots” isn’t a root-cause analysis; it’s just another description of a problem we’re all noticing. The real problem with the power play is happening further from the net – on the other side of the blue line.

The NHL is cagey about publishing its advanced stats, but by its reckoning the Caps rank 30th in offensive-zone time. It’s not that the team isn’t hitting the back of the net, and it’s not that they can’t generate shots either. They are getting turned away at the blue line, before they have a chance to do anything at all. That’s where they need to start: transition play and zone entries.

At even strength, the Capitals are going to be just fine. They’re controlling the puck well. Even if these early-season possession numbers drop, a progression to the mean in shooting percentage will make up the difference.

But I can’t be as blasé about special teams. It’s punishing to watch. I imagine it’s punishing to play. At some point, if it hasn’t happened already, special teams will spill over into even-strength play: opponents will feel more free to restrain the Caps, and the Caps themselves will play on tilt. Grumpy hockey.

Power-play coach Kirk Muller should be a busy man this week.