Why Sam Darnold Is Shockingly Considered the Best MVP Bet
Two seasons ago, Sam Darnold had been tossed aside by a woeful Panthers team and was mired as a backup in San Francisco. It seemed like a bad bet that he would ever become a starting quarterback again. Now, he’s been named a top bet to win the 2025 NFL MVP award.
“The market I’m looking at is the odds to win NFL MVP at FanDuel Sportsbook,” Iain MacMillan writes for Sports Illustrated. “As of writing this article, Josh Allen is the +135 favorite to win the award for the second straight season, followed by Patrick Mahomes at +470 and Baker Mayfield at +950. Despite that, I’d argue the race for this award is still wide open and there’s a chance for a player far down the odds list to make a run at this thing…The player that sticks out to me the most is the quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks, Sam Darnold, at +5000.”
MacMillan doesn’t suggest that Darnold is the outright favorite to win MVP. Instead, he argues that Darnold, at his current odds, offers the best value for sports bettors. Throw $10 on Darnold, win $500.
Yet, even aside from gambling, there is mounting discussion around Darnold’s 2025 MVP campaign. Gilberto Manzano, another Sports Illustrated writer, listed Darnold in a round-up of the top five MVP candidates.
“Seattle aims to be a conservative team that relies on its defense and controls the clock on offense,” Manzano writes. “But over time, we’ll likely see more games with Darnold bailing out a team, as it continues to tinker with its identity.”
The Case for Darnold as MVP
Through five games this season, Darnold has been an analytics darling. He leads all quarterbacks in adjusted points added and completion percentage over expected. While these numbers aren’t as sexy as yards and touchdowns, they indicate efficiency. Essentially, Darnold has been the best quarterback in the league within the confines of what he’s asked to do.
“Whoever tops that number [known as RBSDM composite] by the end of the year typically winds up in the final three in MVP voting,” Oliver Connolly writes in The Guardian. He adds, “It’s no longer a joke: Darnold is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In Minnesota, it was easy to scoff at his ascent. You could point to the schematic environment and his excellent supporting cast. That’s not the case in Seattle.”
There’s also a narrative to consider. If the Seahawks are able to win the NFC West and Darnold puts up numbers comparable to Allen, Jackson, Mahomes, and co., voters may be inclined to anoint the former draft bust as a first-time MVP winner. Of course, all of that is a big, big “if.”
The Case Against Darnold as MVP
There are plenty of holes to pick in Darnold’s MVP case. For starters, Seattle is 3-2 and straddling the Wild Card bubble. They would sneak into the playoffs if the season ended today, but there’s a long way to go. Even Joe Burrow’s astounding 2024 season fell short of an MVP award, as the Bengals missed the playoffs.
Darnold’s utilization is also significantly lower than that of his MVP competitors. He has only 134 pass attempts, which ranks 21st in the league. Prescott, Mahomes, and Mayfield all have over 170 pass attempts, and Allen has 152. The raw numbers don’t stack up, as a result. Darnold ranks seventh in passing yards and passing touchdowns (still impressive considering his limited passing volume).
As MacMillan puts it, “The biggest argument against Darnold right now is that the Seahawks don’t throw the ball enough. He’s averaging the most yards per pass attempt at 9.3, but is 11th in yards per game at 249.2 due to Seattle’s commitment to the run.”
Hoisting the MVP award is far down the road, but the next step for Darnold is clear: guide the Seahawks to a Week 6 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
BREAKING: Dillon Gabriel Addresses Shedeur Sanders' Viral Silence, Focuses on Team Unity
CLEVELAND, OH — Cleveland Browns rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel has reacted to the viral video of teammate Shedeur Sanders, in which the quarterback silently expressed his feelings about the Browns' ongoing quarterback competition. The video, which quickly went viral, showed Sanders, when asked about the Browns' changes at the quarterback position, responding by mouthing his words rather than speaking them aloud, a gesture that captured widespread attention across social media.
While the video sparked various interpretations, Gabriel, who has been named the starting quarterback for Week 5’s matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, took a calm and professional approach to the situation. When asked about Sanders’ silent response, Gabriel focused on team unity and professionalism, making it clear that the competition would not distract from their collective goal.
"For me, we’re a team. We do this as a unit," Gabriel said in his response. "Everyone has their moments, but we stay focused on what’s important — being there for each other and pushing each other to get better."
This comment from Gabriel reflects his maturity and mindset in handling the quarterback situation in Cleveland, where veteran Joe Flacco has struggled, leading to Gabriel's promotion to starting quarterback. While Sanders’ viral moment certainly captured attention, Gabriel’s approach to handling the dynamics within the quarterback room shows a sense of professionalism and commitment to the team's success.
The Quarterback Situation in Cleveland
The quarterback competition in Cleveland has been a major storyline since the beginning of the season. With Flacco’s performance coming under scrutiny, Gabriel’s rise to the starting position marks a pivotal moment for the Browns’ offense. Gabriel, who had a standout college career at Oklahoma, brings an energy and excitement to the field that many fans are hoping will translate to success for the Browns.
Despite being named the starting quarterback, Gabriel will not be the only one competing for attention in the quarterback room. Shedeur Sanders, the talented and charismatic son of NFL legend Deion Sanders, remains on the roster as the third-string quarterback. His viral silence in the interview only added fuel to the fire of the ongoing discussions about the Browns' quarterback future.
Looking Ahead
As the Browns prepare for their upcoming game against the Minnesota Vikings in London, all eyes will be on Dillon Gabriel. This will be his first start in a high-pressure situation, and his leadership will be key to steering the Browns' offense toward success. While Sanders’ viral video may have sparked a social media frenzy, Gabriel has remained focused on his role and the bigger picture for the team.
Gabriel’s approach to the quarterback competition and his handling of Sanders' viral moment only reinforce his readiness for the challenges ahead. His professionalism, alongside the support of the coaching staff and teammates, will be critical as the Browns continue to navigate a tough season.
