The Capitals are dominating the analytics - but analytics don’t hang banners

The Washington Capitals are just 7-7-1 to start the 2025-26 season. After running roughshod over the rest of the NHL to a 51-22-9 record last season, the Capitals, with a relatively unchanged roster, currently sit in nearly the exact opposite spot 15 games into their campaign — three points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

At this same stage of the season a year ago, the Capitals were 10-4-1 and five points ahead of the teams vying for the East’s wild card spots. Although their position in the standings has been reversed, the club is actually performing better analytically at five-on-five this season than they did during their strong start to the 2024-25 season.

Head coach Spencer Carbery spoke about the mental hurdles of balancing his team’s performance process-wise with their inability to finish and secure standings points after practice on Monday afternoon.

“Yeah, it’s really challenging because, as you know, in this business, there’s not a lot of moral victories, and when you don’t get two points, it really doesn’t matter how it looked,” Carbery said. “You have an L in the column that matters the most. It really tests us as coaches to really stay with our process.”

Among all teams in the league five-on-five, the Capitals rank third in shot attempt percentage, second in expected goals for percentage, second in scoring chance for percentage, and third in high danger chance for percentage. However, their .500 point percentage ranks just tied for 22nd in the NHL with six other teams.

The two largest issues remain incredibly clear to the team’s coaching staff and all outside observers: the Capitals have not been able to finish their chances, and they are struggling on special teams worse than any other team in the league.

As of November 9, the Capitals have scored 10.1 fewer goals than expected, which is the 29th best conversion rate in the league. In layperson’s terms, they’re getting great looks in dangerous areas on the ice, but have just been unable to put the puck in the back of the net.

In tandem with those shooting woes comes their inability to create chances while up a man and prevent chances while down a man. Heading into Tuesday night’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes, the Capitals have the fifth-worst power play and the sixth-worst penalty kill in the NHL.

The Capitals have converted on just seven of their 47 chances with a man advantage and have allowed two shorthanded goals against. On the flip side, they have allowed 13 power-play goals on 46 opposing power-play attempts and have yet to score a shorthanded goal of their own.

While the season is still young, Carbery is choosing to remain positive about the things his team is doing well, while simultaneously hoping their luck turns around with the factors limiting their success in the standings.

“Over time, things will shift, and hopefully, pucks will start to go in, and we’ll be rewarded, and we’ll get a few bounces, and special teams will flip and even itself out, and our shooting percentage will even itself out,” Carbery said. “Then you would hope that the wins and the points in the standings column come.

“But it is trying because guys want results, and you want to win hockey games. And when you don’t, guys are not happy with the way things are going, staff and players included. So it’s on us as coaches to point out the things that we continue to be strong at five-on-five and reiterate those and continue to do those things. And maybe take them to even another level and continue to work and be hungry to turn our tides of luck. But yeah, we’re trying to stay positive as we go through.”

The Capitals do not have an easy schedule for the rest of November, as nine of the 11 teams they face off against were playoff teams last year.

To turn things around, they’ll need to start with wins on the road against the Hurricanes and Florida Panthers this week. They have not beaten the Hurricanes on the road since December 17, 2023, losing in five straight outings at Lenovo Center. Similarly, the Capitals have lost six of their last seven against the Panthers at Amerant Bank Arena.

Bears’ Caleb Williams Sends Bold Message to Vikings: ‘I’m Fired Up for This Challenge!’

Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is ready to face the challenge head-on as the team prepares for a crucial divisional matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. After hearing the pre-game buzz and blunt words from the Vikings' defense, Williams fired back with confidence, sending a clear message to Minnesota:

he’s ready for whatever they throw his way.

“I’ve heard the talk, and I welcome it. The Vikings know what I can do, and they should,” Williams said. “Every challenge gets me fired up. I’m not backing down from anyone, and they’ll see exactly what I’m capable of when we hit the field.”

For the Vikings, this game is expected to be a pivotal one. They’ve been a strong defensive team all season, with their pass rush and secondary presenting significant challenges for opposing quarterbacks. The defense has already made headlines for their preparation against the Bears’ offense and, specifically, against Williams. But Williams, a dual-threat quarterback who has shown flashes of brilliance in his rookie year, isn't fazed by the hype or the pressure.

His words are a testament to the belief and confidence he has in his abilities. As a first-year starter, Williams has already proven to be a dynamic force on the field, using his mobility, arm strength, and football IQ to keep defenses on their toes. His performances this season have been marked by his resilience, and this bold statement to the Vikings only adds fuel to the fire for what could be a career-defining game.

Williams isn’t one to shy away from competition. In fact, it seems that the more a team doubts him, the more determined he becomes. "I’m not here to back down,” Williams continued. “I’ve faced tough defenses all season, and I’ve grown from every challenge. The Vikings are just another obstacle in the way of what we want to achieve.”

The confidence Williams exudes is contagious. His willingness to embrace the challenge has energized his teammates and added a new layer of determination to the Bears’ offense. The Bears have struggled at times this season, but with Williams at the helm, they have the potential to turn things around — and possibly put a dent in the Vikings' playoff aspirations.

As the Bears head into this crucial game, it’s clear that Caleb Williams is not intimidated by the challenge ahead. Instead, he’s embracing it, with eyes set on proving his worth as the franchise quarterback for the Bears. With his calm demeanor, fiery competitiveness, and willingness to rise to the occasion, Williams could be the difference-maker the Bears need to secure a win.

The Vikings' defense is in for a tough test, as Williams is more than ready to show them exactly why he's the one to watch in this matchup.

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