NY Jets’ Week 1 performance has shades of 2024’s breakout team

The New York Jets lost in heartbreaking fashion to open the 2025 season. Some fans reacted with cries of “Same Old Jets,” echoing the sentiment Mike Francesa surely would have offered if he were still on the airwaves.

And you can hardly blame them; in certain ways, the loss felt as “Jetsy” as any over the team’s 14-year playoff drought. Self-inflicted blunders led to a blown two-score lead at home against the 41-year-old quarterback who won five games in a Jets uniform last year. It’s the type of laughable script that only seems to be written for this franchise.

But for those who watch football beyond the surface-level storylines, it was hard not to feel like the Jets were operating in a completely different fashion than they ever did over the past 14 years.

It’s only one game, but the Jets’ offensive performance sent extremely promising signals about the unit’s potential. Suddenly, this highly doubted unit offers a much higher ceiling than even the most optimistic fans could have anticipated.

It could all come crashing down in the matter of one week. For now, it remains but a single performance.

However, there is reason to believe that it could be more than a one-off.

2024 season shows the potential legitimacy of Jets’ season-opening explosion

The Jets dropped 32 points on the Pittsburgh Steelers – the most allowed by Pittsburgh’s defense since Week 11 of the 2022 season.

There are many ways to achieve an offensive outburst of that magnitude. Some are flukier than others. You could score half of the points on two touchdown bombs that luckily open up due to coverage busts, or a pair of breakaway runs due to missed tackles. It is also possible to rack up points on short fields afforded by opponent turnovers or big special teams plays.

That wasn’t the case here. The Jets’ offense was consistently successful on a play-to-play basis for four quarters, relying on methodical efficiency to put together their six scoring drives. They received the help of zero opposing turnovers or breakaway kick returns and scored points solely based on their own offensive consistency.

New York finished the game with an offensive success rate of 51.6%, per RBSDM, ranking third-best in the NFL behind the Commanders (52.2%) and Chargers (56.5%). The top six was rounded out by the Bills (51.3%), Ravens (51.0%), and Eagles (50.8%).

Pretty decent company.

But what makes the Jets’ performance in this metric particularly inspiring is the predictiveness of this very same list one year ago.

In Week 1 of the 2024 season, six teams reached a 50% offensive success rate:

1. Bills (58.3%) – W 34-28 vs. Cardinals
2. Buccaneers (54.1%) – W 37-20 vs. Commanders
3. Ravens (52.5%) – L 20-27 @ Chiefs
4. Commanders (50.9%) – L 20-37 @ Buccaneers
5. Lions (50.8%) – W 26-20 vs. Rams
6. Texans (50.0%) – W 29-27 @ Colts

All six of those teams finished the season with 10+ wins.

One of the six squads is a particularly fascinating comparison for New York: the Washington Commanders.

Washington was in an extremely similar situation to the 2025 Jets. Coming off a four-win season, the franchise was debuting a new quarterback (Jayden Daniels), a new offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury), and a new head coach (Dan Quinn). Daniels, like Justin Fields, was an elite athlete and runner for the quarterback position.

The Commanders lost their opener against Tampa Bay, and it was due to many of the same reasons the Jets lost to Pittsburgh. Special teams blunders (two missed field goals) and bad defense (37 points allowed) caused Washington to fall in the win column, but the offense’s night-and-day turnaround in the consistency department felt like something that could be built upon.

Washington had a mobile threat at quarterback, a play caller who knew how to optimize that threat, and a head coach who instilled renewed intensity and physicality to the team’s offensive line and run game. Even in defeat, the Commanders showed the makings of an offense that could sustain efficient play throughout the season.

And that’s precisely what happened. Washington followed its opener with a four-game win streak. The final result was a 12-5 regular season, capped off with a trip to the NFC championship game.

The Commanders finished the season ranked fifth in points per game and fifth in offensive success rate (48.2%). Because of their consistent offense, they were able to reach 12 wins despite their mediocre defense, which finished 18th in points per game and 18th in success rate.

It is too early to say whether the Jets are destined to follow the same path as last year’s Commanders, but Washington’s 2024 debut shows that there is a precedent for an opener like New York’s turning out to be a sign of things to come rather than a fluke.

Jim Harbaugh talks rivalry with Pete Carroll ahead of 'MNF' matchup

Fans of the Pete Carroll-Jim Harbaugh rivalry will be happy to know it hasn't subsided, despite a hiatus that has lasted for more than 10 years.

Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) will face Carroll and the Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) on "Monday Night Football" at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN. It's the first time the coaches have squared off since the 2014 season, when Harbaugh was with the San Francisco 49ers and Carroll was with the Seattle Seahawks.

Jim Harbaugh speaks on his relationship with Pete Carroll ahead of Week 2 

"I always thought if I had ever played for him or one of his teams — because he was coaching when I was playing — or was on his staff when I got into coaching, I bet we would've been really good friends," the former NFL quarterback told the media Wednesday. "Alas, we have been on opposite sides, so I'm not on his Christmas card list." 

It's not surprising they don't wish each other a merry Christmas. It's fair to wonder if they'll even talk before Monday's game. 

The rivalry started at the college level when Carroll was coaching at USC and Harbaugh was at Stanford. The Cardinal went 2-1 against the Trojans under Harbaugh. 

This included a 55-21 rout during the 2009 season, where Harbaugh tried to run up the score by attempting a two-point conversion at the end of the game. Afterward, the coaches met at midfield, and Carroll asked, "What is your deal?"

Carroll would get revenge in the NFC Championship Game during the 2013 season. The Seahawks beat the 49ers 23-17 after cornerback Richard Sherman deflected a pass intended for wide receiver Michael Crabtree, which was intercepted. 

Per Stats Perform, Carroll has a 5-4 record (including playoffs) against Harbaugh in the NFL. His teams have won the last three matchups. 

Don't be surprised if a super-passionate Harbaugh shows even more fire in the Chargers' road game on Monday. He'll want to even the score with Carroll.