Did Bengals Give Packers Blueprint to Solving Steelers Defense?
Even though Aaron Rodgers has downplayed the revenge game narrative surrounding his first career meeting versus his former team, Sunday Night Football has plenty of significance for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’re trying to keep pace in a murky AFC landscape but, more than anything else, wipe the stench off following a disappointing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. While not quite the same as the traditional bye week, teams will often use the extended days off to do some self-scouting, figuring out what’s working, what’s not, and what they can steal from other teams around the league.
One thing that needs fixed pronto is their pass defense, particularly from a coverage standpoint. This is a unit that currently ranks 21st in dropback EPA/play and 19th in success rate, largely falling extremely short of high expectations set by their head coach. When they’ve not been able to get pressure on the quarterback, there has been virtually no resistance downfield. Not only did Joe Flacco, Ja’Marr Chase, and company embarrass them on national television, but they also may have given the rest of the league a blueprint on how to attack this Steelers defense.
Cincinnati’s philosophy was pretty straightforward: get the ball out quickly to negate the Steelers’ pass rush. Flacco went 21-31, 222 yards and three touchdowns on throws under 2.5 seconds after the snap, which was more yards on quick throws than any quarterback has accumulated all season long by a wide margin. The idea was to get five out in the route on as many plays as possible and hunt favorable matchups based on pre-snap identification. There’s a reason that Mike Tomlin was so irked by Andrew Berry’s decision to help out a divisional rival. Flacco has been around the block with over 200 career starts and knows where the bones are buried within the Steelers’ defensive scheme, one that isn’t overly complex to begin with.
This weekend, Teryl Austin’s group will square off with Rodgers’ protégé in Jordan Love, who currently ranks 3rd in both EPA/play and success rate this season. The Nevada product is a gunslinger at heart and plays the position with a wealth of aggressiveness while simultaneously doing an admirable job avoiding sacks in the process. Even though he didn’t get much playing time during his first few seasons in the league as Rodgers continued to rack up MVPs, it’s clear that he learned a thing or two sitting behind one of the all-time greats. Similar to the way that his mentor continues to dice up defenses in his old age, Love possesses the mental aptitude to play the point guard to methodically move the football down the field, even if he still remains prone to one goofy decision per game.
Over the first half dozen games of the 2024 season, Love is completing a league-high 89.2% of his passes and is averaging .41 EPA/DB. (For context, anything above the .3 mark is considered MVP-caliber play in the present-day NFL). All of this to say, this is going to be a significant challenge for a Steelers defense that has struggled against what could best be described as an easy slate of quarterbacks so far this year. Let’s check the film to see what to expect.
The Packers have a bunch of talented pass catchers, even though they don’t have anyone that you would classify as a true number one wideout. You could make an argument that their most dangerous player with the ball is actually their tight end Tucker Kraft, whose 211 yards after the catch are the second-most in the NFL for his position. One of their signature plays is the play-action concept, where they fake like they’re running a duo and then hit Kraft in the flat as the primary read. As you can see below, the safety has him in man coverage but is also responsible for the C-gap in run support, putting him in a bind. The Steelers love to blitz on early downs with man coverage behind it, but a changeup may be necessary this weekend.
The receiver that has the most chemistry with Love is fourth-year pro Romeo Doubs, who primarily operates as the X when they go to their trips formations. They’ve already hooked up for scores on three separate occasions when facing man coverage this season, further showing the trust that exists between the two of them. The below example of versus the Cowboys shows it to a tee. Doubs is running a stop route on third down with the cornerback playing off coverage near the sticks, which would usually deter the quarterback from throwing in this direction. However, Love hits the back foot of his drop, rips it with anticipation, and drills it with conviction. Doubs is a physical player with strong hands and has proven to be very difficult to deal with even if the coverage is tight initially.
The Steelers coaching staff has drawn a lot of criticism for their predictability and lack of disguise on the back end, and while more creativity would certainly be a pleasant surprise, it may not matter as much in this particular matchup. Love, as is often the case with passers with high-end arm talent, doesn’t get enough credit for how cerebral he is. In their blowout win over the Lions, he recognized Detroit’s blitz intentions by resetting the protection pre-snap, had to process the post-snap rotation into a two-high shell, and still delivered a beautiful down throw up the seam. Keeping a lid on explosive plays has been a problem for Pittsburgh’s defense so far this season, and in order to come away victorious, they’ll need to limit the explosive plays down the field.
Green Bay has scored 27 points in every game this season, except for one- a week three loss to the Cleveland Browns. By shutting down Josh Jacobs, they were able to put them behind the sticks and generate significant pressure on Love without needing to send additional rushers to do so. Perhaps most importantly, they were able to force Love into an ill-advised decision and come away with an interception that led to points.
It won’t be easy for the Steelers defense by any stretch of the imagination. That goes for this matchup and the much stronger offenses that reside on the back end of their schedule. If this team plans on making any noise in the postseason, they’re going to need to find some answers from a scheme and personnel perspective. If not, who knows? We could be in for another offensive shootout under the lights.
Backing the Saints' Chris Olave among top NFL player prop expert's best bets for Week 8
Expert Alex Selesnick, who is up $3,003 on all prop picks since 2021, says to back the New Orleans receiver.
The NFL trade deadline is a little more than a week away, and among the more popular receivers being floated as possible trade candidates is the New Orleans Saints' Chris Olave. Reports have linked Olave with the Bills, Eagles, Giants, Patriots and Steelers, among others.
On some levels, the Saints moving on from the 25-year-old receiver prior to the Nov. 4 deadline makes sense. New Orleans (1-6) remains one of the worst teams in the league, and their timeline to rebuild the franchise into a NFC contender doesn't align with the Olave's prime, which is arguably right now. Also, he is signed only through the 2026 season. If the team does not feel confident in its abilities to extend Olave's contract, it would benefit from getting what it can for him from a receiver-needy team with Super Bowl aspirations.
But with every game this year, the price for Olave is going up. The 6-foot, 187-pound wideout is having a solid comeback season. After missing most of 2024 with multiple concussions, Olave leads New Orleans in virtually very important receiving category, including receptions (44), targets (71), receiving yards (440) and receiving touchdowns (three). He is on pace to set career highs in catches and touchdowns.
In the last two weeks, he has had six catches for 98 yards against the Patriots and five catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears.
"I feel like I'm just getting in my groove, last game, this game," Olave said after last week's game. "So I feel like it's only going to get better."
SportsLine player prop expert Alex Selesnick believes Olave is in store for another big performance on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Selesnick, who is 1,014-805 and up $3,003 on all prop picks since joining SportsLine in 2021, has made Olave Over 61.5 total receiving yards (-118) one of his top three player props for Week 8 of the NFL season.
Selesnick notes that Olave has a favorable matchup against the Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay defense is giving up 229.0 passing yards per game, which ranks 21st in the league. That defense also will be without pass rusher Haason Reddick (ankle, knee), who already has been ruled out, and may be without lineman Vita Vea (foot), who is questionable.
"Olave's target share, targets per route run, first read target rate, and his expected points per game all point to untapped upside," Selesnick says. "In a matchup against a Bucs defense that has been a pass funnel and is missing numerous starters, this is a spot where Olave could deliver another strong performance."
But the speculation of the Saints' trading Olave may be a moot point. He has said that his representation and the front office have been discussing the terms of an extension "since the beginning of the year."
That will certainly make Saints fans happy, much like his play has.
